ConfirmThem

Perot sabotaged Bush I and Dole, Nader sabotaged Gore. A conservative third party candidate will sabotage any hope of a reasonably non-liberal president. Instead, we will be stuck with the likes of Hillary and/or Obama. Those people who suggest a conservative alternative to Giuliani, Romney or McCain is asking for four year of unmitigated liberalism with the Dems in control. Does anyone really think Giuliani, Romney or McCain will nominate judges worse than Hillary?

Even if there's no third party candidate, it would be surprising if the GOP base showed up to vote for a candidate (Giuliani) who intends to sign legislation codifying Roe v. Wade. I would probably vote for Giuliani under those circumstances, because he might also appoint judges who would overturn Roe, but it's not something I would enjoy doing at all.

For years pro-choice Republicans have voted for pro-life nominees. This is what it means to be part of a mature political party. Although I think that social conservatives will probably stop Rudy, if we don't we have to step up to the plate and lobby hard for a strong social conservative VP (Rick Santorum anyone?).

don't get me wrong, I love the guy. but be realistic, he just lost 2-1 as an incumbent to an empty suit with a unibrow a year ago. and the moonbats seriously hate the guy, mouth-frothing, spittle-flying type of hate, the way they do Bush or Cheney or Ashcroft.

I am growing sick in tired of all the hoopla about Romney. He has money, he has organization, and he has the looks. One problem he is polling very badly nationally. Why is media still touting him as the front runner.

You heard here first the Nominee will be Rudy or Huckabee

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/07/AR200711...

"Democrats wrested control of the [Virginia State] Senate from the Republicans in yesterday's legislative elections, picking up the four seats they needed to give them a majority of at least 21 to 19 and end a decade of GOP dominance in the chamber."

"Democrats also picked up at least four House seats, including two in Northern Virginia."

With the Dems much stronger in the Virginia General Assembly, Bush should withdraw Getchell in January and name Lemons and Agee to the two Virginia Fourth Circuit seats. There is no doubt in my mind that Kaine and the Virginia Dems would allow Webb to fast track them in order to get two more moderate/liberal people on the Virginia Supreme Court. Bush would be a fool not to take this opportunity to fill the Fourth Circuit. This would put Webb on the spot. To block these two men now would expose Webb as a hack Dem obstructionist. Does Webb want that reputation as he seems to be covertly pursuing a place on the Dem ticket as VP?

Anybody hear anything on Richard Honaker out in Wyoming? He was nominated March 19 and not so much as a hearing yet.

into another hotbed of liberal judicial activism? I think it's a mistake to nominate any VA Supremes to federal courts.

not national polls. There is a very good possibility that Romney will win Iowa, NH, Nevada, Wyoming, and Michigan. With an endorsement from Bob Jones III and his moving up in the polls in that state, plus momentum of wins, he could well win SC. Also a possibility that he'll bust through Rudy's so-called firewall in Florida. It could well be that we get to Feb. 5 and Rudy hasn't won a state yet. He could well pick up bocoo delegates on that date (NY, Cal., etc.), but not as much as he would have if he won any or some of the previous ones. I'd rather be in Mitt's position.

It's like a sports team that looks great on paper, but keeps looking ahead in its schedule rather than focusing on the game at hand. The Rockies were a great example of that in 21 of 22 games. The week plus killed them, but they didn't use it as an excuse. What I'm saying is, use this analogy for what it's worth--don't absurdly press it.

Classic is correct. Also, Romney has little national name recognition at this point. That would change quickly and dramatically should he win a few of the early states.

October Nominee Report
As of 10/31/07

As a reference aid for other readers and posters on this site, I compile a monthly summary of progress on Article III federal judicial nominations. Following are the figures for October:

Circuit Confirmations: 2 (Elrod, Southwick)
District Confirmations: 3 (Mauskopf, Aycock, Jones)
*Circuit Nominees Reported by SJC: 0
District Nominees Reported by SJC: 1 (Dow)
Circuit Nominees had Hearings: 0
District Nominees had Hearings: 1 (LaPlante, Schroeder, O’Connor, Thapar)
No. of Judicial Nomination Hearings: 1 (10/24/07)
Circuit Nominations: 0
District Nominations: 1 (Miller)
Total Nominees Pending on 10/31: 24 (9 CCA, 15 DJ)
Nominees in Committee with hearing: 6 (2 CCA: Keisler, Tinder; 4 DJ)
*Nominees on Executive Calendar on 10/31:1 (0 CCA, 1 DJ)
New Vacancies: 3 (3 DJ)
Total Vacancies on 9/30: 48 (17 CCA, 31 DJ)
Total Vacancies on 10/31: 46 (15 CCA, 31 DJ)
Change in Vacancies in October: -2

* Circuit nominee John Tinder (7th Circuit) was reported favorably to the Senate by voice vote of the Senate Judiciary Committee on November 1, 2007. This is not included in the above figures.

OUTLOOK: Present Nominees:

Probable confirmation in November: Tinder
Possible/unlikely Hearing in November: Haynes
Possible/very unlikely favorable SJC vote this year: Haynes
Possible/extremely unlikely Confirmation this year, probable in Jan/Feb: Haynes
Wild Card. Nomination seems moribund, but could go through quickly at any time as result of an inside Senate deal: Keisler
Nominations long dead: Kethledge (6), Murphy (6)
No hope this year, possibly next year: Conrad (4)
No hope this year, probably never: Getchell (4), Matthews (4), Stone (3)

BOTTOM LINE: Tinder will probably be confirmed this month. Observers should focus on the timing of the next CCA hearing, probably Catharina Haynes (5th Circuit). Senate Democrats will try to delay this hearing until next January at least. I think their goal is to get through the year without another hearing, and delay a Haynes confirmation until early February at least. That would make a total of 7 (Seven!). The hearing for the 8th nominee could then be delayed until March. From that point there are only 3-4 months at most left until a Thurmond Rule shutdown of the confirmation process. The calendar is getting very short and relentless.

Those of you here who are still blithely (some might say naively) predicting 12 or more CCA confirmations this Session, look at the calendar and pace of confirmations, and take heed! Even 10-11 CCA confirmations will be very difficult to achieve.

Way to go out on a limb and make a predicition. I will make one too: the nominee will be either Rudy, McCain, Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, or Paul. J/K. If you are going to make such fanfare for your prediciton actually MAKE ONE. Either or is not a prediction as I just absurdly pointed out.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/quick-return-for-feinsteins--vote-on...

"Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) vote to move the stalled nomination of Judge Leslie Southwick this summer made Republicans more willing to work with her..."

"Republicans allowed passage of the Labor - Health and Human Services appropriations bill, which contained funding for many top Democratic priorities. Those included $4 million in projects sponsored by Feinstein."

"Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), the lead Republican cosponsor of Feinstein’s gang bill, said her vote on Southwick smoothed a path for the legislation. The $1.1 billion bill has been a high priority for Feinstein..."

"Democrats passed the labor bill the evening before they voted to confirm Southwick on Oct. 24.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.), another Republican member of Judiciary, initially opposed Feinstein’s gang bill. He said he came around to supporting it after Feinstein narrowed its scope."

As I said last week, Senate Democrats cannot be reasoned with, but they can be bought. I suggest that we pay them however many millions or billions are necessary to get Keisler confirmed and fill the 4th Circuit. $10-20 billion in pork and whatever else would be a bargain. Michigan needs money desperately, Maybe we could buy confirmation for Kethledge too.

Just put up White to the other seat. Levin will take the deal

In that case, that deal should definitely be made. Bush has already made six appointments to the 6th Circuit, so we can afford to compromise here to get a 7th and hopefully end the Michigan judicial wars to boot. But they should be bundled together in expedited hearings, Committee votes, and floor votes, so that as little additional time as possible is spent in processing them. ABA would no doubt rush through a fawningly favorable White evaluation in record time. We cannot afford to have other nominees set back an additional 4-6 weeks.

Bush should also get nominees confirmed for both vacant Michigan DJ's as part of this bargain, on the same expedited schedule.

Don't know why Honacker has been bypassed so far. Same has happened to Hall (also nom. 3/19, Georgia-South DJ), Dugas (nom. 3/19, Louisiana DJ: Landreaux blue-slip problem), Farr (nom. 1/9, NC-East DJ), Rogan (nom. 1/9, CA-C, Clinton investigation problems).

ABA has completed Honacker's rating: unanimously "Well-Qualified". Assume that both Wyoming GOP Senators have returned blue slips.

I'd guess Honacker would be one of the first District Judge nominees to get a hearing next year. Unless there's some unknown problem.

Does anyone know if the four District Court nominees were sent to the Senate today?

Called Sen. Leahy's office a few minutes ago. A staffer told me that all 4 District nominees were held over for at least one week.. Surprise, surprise. Executive nominee Sullivan was reported favorably.

She didn't know if there would be another Business Meeting before adjournment. My guess is that they'll just confirm Tinder and Dow, then get out of town to pursue their real job: fund raising.

Outsider, thanks for making the call!

For what, if anything, it's worth, the SJC has now posted another Business Meeting for November 15. The four District Court nominees are on the agenda.

Hopefully, that means there will be voice vote confirmations for all 4 just before adjournment. With Dow and Tinder, that would make 40 confirmations in 2007, but only 6 CCA.

Michael Bloomberg/Ron Paul 2008. Talk about an exciting 3rd party candidacy. Two (soon-to-be in the case of Paul in this scenario) former Republicans running - and attracting all of their support from the Democratic ticket! I love it! :-)

As for the GOP nomination...I think that Mitt Romney will win it. And I think that he'll sandbag Hillary the same way he has mapped out his path to victory in the GOP primary.

He's got a sizable lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he wins both of those, it's hard to see him not going on to win Michigan, South Carolina, etc.

The only way it will be Giuliani or Huckabee is if it comes down to those two. If the last two standing are one of those two and McCain, Thompson, or Romney, primary voters will turn to the latter so as to avoid a nominee who will so bitterly split the party.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

Meant to reply to an earlier post.

And as to Giuiliani, I agree with Andrew--I could hold my nose and vote for him

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

Good day. "Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) vote to move the stalled nomination of Judge Leslie Southwick this summer made Republicans more willing to work with her..."

"Republicans allowed passage of the Labor - Health and Human Services appropriations bill, which contained funding for many top Democratic priorities. Those included $4 million in projects sponsored by Feinstein."

"Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), the lead Republican cosponsor of Feinstein’s gang bill, said her vote on Southwick smoothed a path for the legislation. The $1.1 billion bill has been a high priority for Feinstein carisoprodol...."

"Democrats passed the labor bill the evening before they voted to confirm Southwick on Oct. 24.
Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.), another Republican member of Judiciary, initially opposed Feinstein’s gang bill. Have found the many information in the Internet -
baby sling. He said he came around to supporting it after Feinstein narrowed its scope."

I